Every 2 weeks I do a general overview of the OC real estate market - if you'd like more specific details about the cities I discuss (or any other), please let me know!
Each year I do a review of the year's activity (including updating the forecasts made the previous January) and then a forecast for the upcoming year.
- The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks plunged by 295 homes, down 8%, and now sits at 3,286, its lowest level since the start of June. In October, there were 35% fewer homes that came on the market compared to the 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019), 1,042 less. Last year, there were 1,457 homes on the market, 1,829 fewer homes, or 56% less. The 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019) was 5,359, or 63% more.
- Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 10 pending sales in the past two weeks, up 1%, and now totals 1,212, its first rise since the last two weeks of August. Last year, there were 2,221 pending sales, 83% more than today. The 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019) was 1,969, or 62% more.
- With supply plunging and demand rising, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, decreased from 89 to 81 days in the past couple of weeks, its lowest level since mid-October. It was 20 days last year, much stronger than today.
- For homes priced below $750,000, the Expected Market Time decreased from 71 to 62 days. This range represents 24% of the active inventory and 31% of demand.
- For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 72 to 68 days. This range represents 22% of the active inventory and 26% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 77 to 68 days. This range represents 12% of the active inventory and 14% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1.25 million to $1.5 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 95 to 73 days. This range represents 10% of the active inventory and 11% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1.5 million to $2 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 110 to 99 days. This range represents 11% of the active inventory and 9% of demand.
- For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time in the past two weeks increased from 137 to 144 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $8 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 365 to 527 days. For homes priced above $8 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 220 to 420 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $2 million, accounts for 25% of the inventory and 10% of demand.
- Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.2% of all listings and 0.2% of demand. There are only 5 foreclosures and 3 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 8 total distressed homes on the active market, up 1 from two weeks ago. Last year there were 7 total distressed homes on the market, similar to today.
- There were 1,726 closed residential resales in October, 38% less than October 2021’s 2,778 closed sales. September marked a 14% decrease compared to September 2022. The sales to list price ratio was 98.7% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for 0.2% of all closed sales, and there were no short sales. That means that 99.8% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
For more information on the systems that I use and the extremely effective strategies I employ for both home buyers and sellers, please contact me. Phone: 949.413.2371 Email: Michael@HausamGroup.com
Michael Hausam is a licensed Realtor (BRE Agent #1319560) and Mortgage Loan Originator (NMLS # 1577195). He's been a resident of Orange County, CA since 1990, he funded his first mortgage loan in 1991, has had a B-1 general contractors license since 2005, and he has had his real estate license for over 20 years.
If you'd like details on any other cities in the county, please let me know!
For more information on the systems that I use and the extremely effective strategies I employ for both home buyers and sellers, please contact me.
Phone: 949.413.2371
Email: Michael@HausamGroup.com
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