Every month I do a general overview of the OC real estate market - but once a year I do a review of the previous year (including evaluation of that year's forecasts that I made) and a forecast for the upcoming year.
Marketplace Update for the December:
- Interest rates continued their increase: 6.91% to end the year and that's up from 6.81% to start the month.
- Inventory dropped again; 2025 will begin with 2,500 homes available for sale, higher than last year's 1,623 but the 3rd lowest since tracking began 20 years ago.
- Demand dropped again; Sales numbers for this time of year are the 3rd lowest since tracking began 20 years ago, but higher than last year's numbers.
- Expected market time ended December at 67 - still a seller's market, cooler than last year's number of 53 days.
2024 Review
- Forecast #1: Rates down to the mid 5's somewhere in the second half of the year. Actual: lowest rates were at 6.08% in late September.
- Forecast #2: Peak inventory at 3,000 to 3,500 homes. Actual: 3,695 peak, slightly higher than I expected.
- Forecast #3: Appreciation of 3% - 5% average gain. Actual: 8.3% increase, significantly higher than anticipated.
- Forecast #4: Normal inventory/sales cycle (peak sales in the Spring and peak inventory mid-Summer). Actual: sales did peak in the Spring, but peak inventory didn't hit until late September.
- Forecast #5: 21,000 to 23,000 in closed sales transactions. Actual: just over 20,000, slightly lower than I anticipated.
2025 Forecast
- Forecast #1: Rates between 6.5% to 7% - no real dramatic changes expected.
- Forecast #2: Inventory peak of 4,200 to 4,500 homes; a 14% to 22% increase over 2024.
- Forecast #3: Appreciation of 3% to 6%; less than 2024's 8.3%
- Forecast #4: Same cycle as 2024: peak sales in the Spring and peak inventory in September.
- Forecast #5: Sales will be up 7% to 9% compared to 2024, 22,000 to 23,000 sales.
For more information on the systems that I use and the extremely effective strategies I employ for both home buyers and sellers, please contact me.
Phone: 949.413.2371
Email: Michael@HausamGroup.com
Michael Hausam is a licensed Real Estate Broker (BRE Agent #1319560) and Mortgage Loan Originator (NMLS # 1577195). He's been a resident of Orange County, CA since 1990, he funded his first mortgage loan in 1991, has had a B-1 general contractors license since 2005, and he has had his real estate license for over 24 years.
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