Every 2 weeks I do a general overview of the OC real estate market - if you'd like more specific details about the cities I discuss (or any other), please let me know!
Each year I do a review of the year's activity (including updating the forecasts made the previous January) and then a forecast for the upcoming year.
- The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks decreased by 304 homes, down 2%, and now sits at 3,638, its lowest level since June. In August, there were 30% fewer homes that came on the market compared to the 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019), 1,054 less. Last year, there were 2,289 homes on the market, 1,349 fewer homes, or 37% less. The 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019) was 6,520, or 79% more.
- Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 75 pending sales in the past two weeks, down 4%, and now totals 1,756. It is still the lowest reading for mid- September since 2007. Last year, there were 2,623 pending sales, 49% more than today. The 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019) was 2,363, or 35% more.
- With demand dropping faster than the supply of homes, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, increased from 61 to 62 days in the past couple of weeks, a Slight Seller’s Market (between 60 and 90 days). It was at 26 days last year, much stronger than today.
- For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) with an Expected Market Time of 43 days. This range represents 20% of the active inventory and 29% of demand.
- For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the Expected Market Time is 51 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 24% of the active inventory and 29% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the Expected Market Time is 54 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 12% of the active inventory and 13% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1.25 million to $1.5 million, the Expected Market Time is 62 days, a Slight Seller’s Market. This range represents 11% of the active inventory and 11% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1.5 million to $2 million, the Expected Market Time is 85 days, a Slight Seller’s Market. This range represents 12% of the active inventory and 9% of demand.
- For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time in the past two weeks increased from 91 to 113 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $8 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 161 to 220 days. For homes priced above $8 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 407 to 325 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $2 million, accounts for 22% of the inventory and 9% of demand.
- Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.2% of all listings and 0.1% of demand. There are only 5 foreclosures and 3 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 8 total distressed home on the active market, unchanged from two weeks ago. Last year there were 13 total distressed homes on the market, similar to today.
- There were 2,168 closed residential resales in August, 30% less than August 2021’s 3,119 closed sales. August marked an 11% increase compared to July 2022. The sales to list price ratio was 99.0% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for 0.1% of all closed sales, and there were no short sales. That means that 99.9% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
For more information on the systems that I use and the extremely effective strategies I employ for both home buyers and sellers, please contact me. Phone: 949.413.2371 Email: Michael@HausamGroup.com
Michael Hausam is a licensed Realtor (BRE Agent #1319560) and Mortgage Loan Originator (NMLS # 1577195). He's been a resident of Orange County, CA since 1990, he funded his first mortgage loan in 1991, has had a B-1 general contractors license since 2005, and he has had his real estate license for over 20 years.
If you'd like details on any other cities in the county, please let me know!
For more information on the systems that I use and the extremely effective strategies I employ for both home buyers and sellers, please contact me.
Phone: 949.413.2371
Email: Michael@HausamGroup.com
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